How much evidence is necessary to release investigational drugs to any terminally ill patient? Empirically determining, for each developmental phase, the number of patients who must be treated with an experimental agent for 1 person to benefit (ie, the number needed to treat [NNT]) may be useful. Such analysis might begin by determining, for each phase of development, the probability that an agent will eventually receive FDA approval. Oncology drugs entering phases 1, 2, and 3 subsequently have FDA approval rates of 26%, 34%, and 57%, respectively.5 Yet, even among agents that are FDA-approved, only a fraction of patients who receive the agent experience benefit. Hence, to determine phase-specific NNT figures, these data can be combined with figures pertaining to the absolute mortality reduction seen in compounds that reach each stage of development. In essence, better phase-specific data recording and reporting could generate NNT figures that serve as an empirical guidepost in the selection of a cutoff point for access. Such data may be imprecise, but it is preferable to make policy choices based on whatever phase-specific numbers can be generated rather than intuitive assessments of appropriateness.