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Estimating Prognosis for Nursing Home Residents With Advanced DementiaEstimating Prognosis for Nursing Home Residents With Advanced Dementia

JAMA. 2004;292(13):1553-1554. doi:10.1001/jama.292.13.1553-a
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AUTHOR INFORMATION

Letters Section Editor: Robert M. Golub, MD, Senior Editor.

ESTIMATING PROGNOSIS FOR NURSING HOME RESIDENTS WITH ADVANCED DEMENTIA

To the Editor: I have several concerns about the patient selection in the study by Dr Mitchell and colleagues1 and the implications for who should be considered for a palliative care program.

First, the patients in the study had Cognitive Performance Scores of 5 or 6, equivalent to a Mini-Mental State Examination score of 5 or lower. Although these patients can be considered to have severe dementia, I do not agree that a patient with a Mini-Mental State Examination score of 5 necessarily has “advanced” dementia, assuming advanced to imply the terminal stages of a disease.

Second, the study included patients with infections, severe organ failure, and even associated cancer. However, it is not clear whether the functional evaluation was undertaken during a period of clinical stability or instability. This might mistakenly lead to a prognostic factor from an associated disease being considered a prognostic factor for terminal dementia.

Third, distinction should be made between a factor being prognostic or being an evolutionary factor characterizing the terminal stage of a chronic progressive fatal disease such as dementia. For instance, in the study by Mitchell et al and in other studies of survival that have included patients in all stages of dementia,2 5 male sex appears as a factor associated with a poor prognosis; however, this does not mean that if the patient is a man he is in a more or less advanced stage. Thus, this information, while useful as a prognostic factor, is of no benefit when deciding whether a patient should be included in a palliative care program. Age is another similar factor.

While I recognize the value of this study as a prognostic analysis, I believe that when making these decisions it is more important to know what characteristics suggest that a patient is in the terminal stage of a disease rather than knowing the prognosis in particular clinical situations.

References
Mitchell SL, Kiely DK, Hamel MB, Park S, Morris JN, Fries BE. Estimating prognosis for nursing home residents with advanced dementia.  JAMA. 2004;2912734-2740
PubMed
Lapane KL, Gambassi G, Landi F, Sgadari A, Mor V, Bernebei R. Gender differences in predictors of mortality in nursing home residents with AD.  Neurology. 2001;56650-654
PubMed
Stern Y, Tang MX, Albert M.  et al.  Predicting time to nursing home care and death in individuals with Alzheimer disease.  JAMA. 1997;277806-812
PubMed
Moritz D, Fox P, Luscombe F, Kraemer H. Neurological and psychiatric predictors of mortality in patients with Alzheimer disease in California.  Arch Neurol. 1997;54878-885
PubMed
Jagger C, Clarke M, Stone A. Predictors of survival with Alzheimer’s disease: a community-based study.  Psychol Med. 1995;25171-178
PubMed

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Mitchell SL, Kiely DK, Hamel MB, Park S, Morris JN, Fries BE. Estimating prognosis for nursing home residents with advanced dementia.  JAMA. 2004;2912734-2740
PubMed
Lapane KL, Gambassi G, Landi F, Sgadari A, Mor V, Bernebei R. Gender differences in predictors of mortality in nursing home residents with AD.  Neurology. 2001;56650-654
PubMed
Stern Y, Tang MX, Albert M.  et al.  Predicting time to nursing home care and death in individuals with Alzheimer disease.  JAMA. 1997;277806-812
PubMed
Moritz D, Fox P, Luscombe F, Kraemer H. Neurological and psychiatric predictors of mortality in patients with Alzheimer disease in California.  Arch Neurol. 1997;54878-885
PubMed
Jagger C, Clarke M, Stone A. Predictors of survival with Alzheimer’s disease: a community-based study.  Psychol Med. 1995;25171-178
PubMed
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