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ARTICLE |

A Six-Year Follow-up of HIV-Infected Homosexual Men With Lymphadenopathy: Title and subTitle BreakEvidence for an Increased Risk for Developing AIDS After the Third Year of Lymphadenopathy FREE

Jonathan E. Kaplan, MD; Thomas J. Spira, MD; Daniel B. Fishbein, MD; Lorna H. Bozeman, MS; Paul F. Pinsky, MPH; Lawrence B. Schonberger, MD
[+] Author Affiliations

Reprint requests to Division of Viral Diseases, Bldg 6, Room 127, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333 (Dr Kaplan).


JAMA. 1988;260(18):2694-2697. doi:10.1001/jama.1988.03410180102038
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Seventy-five homosexual men with generalized lymphadenopathy for at least three months (lymphadenopathy syndrome [LAS]), subsequently shown to be seropositive for antibody against human immunodeficiency virus, were enrolled in a prospective study in Atlanta in 1982 and 1983. As of Nov 30,1987, twenty-two (29%) of the 75 were known to have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) three to 60 months after enrollment and five to 69 months after onset of LAS. The six-year cumulative incidence of AIDS, by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, was 38%. The cumulative incidence in years 4,5, and 6 (30%) was significantly higher than in years 1, 2, and 3 (11%), suggesting that the risk for AIDS increases after the third year of LAS and that many more study participants will eventually develop AIDS. A precipitous decline in the T-helper cell count frequently heralds the diagnosis of AIDS; this decrease appears to occur at different times after the onset of LAS in different persons. The four-year cumulative incidence of AIDS following observations of T-helper cell counts less than 200/mm3, 200 to 299/mm3, 300 to 399/mm3, and 400/mm3 or greater was 84%, 41%, 25%, and 18%, respectively; these data are important for determining prognosis in the individual patient as well as for determining the suitability of candidates and baseline data for drug trials.

(JAMA 1988;260:2694-2697)

REFERENCES

Goedert JJ, Biggar RJ, Weiss SH, et al:  Three-year incidence of AIDS in five cohorts of HTLV-III-infected risk group members . Science 1986;;231:992-995.
Curran JW, Jaffe HW, Hardy AM, et al:  Epidemiology of HIV infection and AIDS in the United States . Science 1988;;239:610-616.
Holzman RS, Walsh CM, Karpatkin S:  Risk for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome among thrombocytopenic and nonthrombocytopenic homosexual men seropositive for the human immunodeficiency virus . Ann Intern Med 1987;;106:383-386.
Goedert JJ, Biggar RJ, Melbye M, et al:  Effect of T4 count and cofactors on the incidence of AIDS in homosexual men infected with human immunodeficiency virus . JAMA 1987;;257:331-334.
Eyster ME, Gail MH, Ballard JO, et al:  Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus infections in hemophiliacs: Effects of T-cell subsets, platelet counts, and age . Ann Intern Med 1987;;107:1-6.
Mathur-Wagh U, Mildvan D, Senie RT:  Follow-up at 4 1/2 years on homosexual men with generalized lymphadenopathy . N Engl J Med 1985;;313:1542-1543.
Fishbein DB, Kaplan JE, Spira TJ, et al:  Unexplained lymphadenopathy in homosexual men: A longitudinal study . JAMA 1985;;254:930-935.
Kaplan JE, Spira TJ, Fishbein DB, et al:  Lymphadenopathy syndrome in homosexual men: Evidence for continuing risk of developing the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome . JAMA 1987;;257:335-337.
 Single-sample nonparametric methods , in Cox DR, Oakes D (eds): Analysis of Survival Data . New York, Chapman & Hall, 1984;, chap 4.
Medley GF, Anderson RM, Cox DR, et al:  Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected via blood transfusion . Nature 1987;;328:719-721.
Mathur-Wagh U, Enlow RW, Spigland I, et al:  Longitudinal study of persistent generalised lymphadenopathy in homosexual men: Relation to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome . Lancet 1984;; 1:1033-1038.
El Sadr W, Marmor M, Zolla-Pazner S, et al:  Four-year prospective study of homosexual men: Correlation of immunologic abnormalities, clinical status, and serology to human immunodeficiency virus . J Infect Dis 1987;;155:789-793.
Polk BF, Fox R, Brookmeyer R, et al:  Predictors of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome developing in a cohort of seropositive homosexual men . N Engl J Med 1987;;316:61-66.
Schechter MT, Boyko WJ, Craib KJP, et al:  Effects of long-term seropositivity to human immunodeficiency virus in a cohort of homosexual men . AIDS 1987;;1:77-82.
Melbye M, Biggar RJ, Ebbesen P, et al:  Long-term seropositivity for human T-lymphotropic virus type III in homosexual men without the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome: Development of immunologic and clinical abnormalities . Ann Intern Med 1986;;104:496-500.

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Goedert JJ, Biggar RJ, Weiss SH, et al:  Three-year incidence of AIDS in five cohorts of HTLV-III-infected risk group members . Science 1986;;231:992-995.
Curran JW, Jaffe HW, Hardy AM, et al:  Epidemiology of HIV infection and AIDS in the United States . Science 1988;;239:610-616.
Holzman RS, Walsh CM, Karpatkin S:  Risk for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome among thrombocytopenic and nonthrombocytopenic homosexual men seropositive for the human immunodeficiency virus . Ann Intern Med 1987;;106:383-386.
Goedert JJ, Biggar RJ, Melbye M, et al:  Effect of T4 count and cofactors on the incidence of AIDS in homosexual men infected with human immunodeficiency virus . JAMA 1987;;257:331-334.
Eyster ME, Gail MH, Ballard JO, et al:  Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus infections in hemophiliacs: Effects of T-cell subsets, platelet counts, and age . Ann Intern Med 1987;;107:1-6.
Mathur-Wagh U, Mildvan D, Senie RT:  Follow-up at 4 1/2 years on homosexual men with generalized lymphadenopathy . N Engl J Med 1985;;313:1542-1543.
Fishbein DB, Kaplan JE, Spira TJ, et al:  Unexplained lymphadenopathy in homosexual men: A longitudinal study . JAMA 1985;;254:930-935.
Kaplan JE, Spira TJ, Fishbein DB, et al:  Lymphadenopathy syndrome in homosexual men: Evidence for continuing risk of developing the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome . JAMA 1987;;257:335-337.
 Single-sample nonparametric methods , in Cox DR, Oakes D (eds): Analysis of Survival Data . New York, Chapman & Hall, 1984;, chap 4.
Medley GF, Anderson RM, Cox DR, et al:  Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected via blood transfusion . Nature 1987;;328:719-721.
Mathur-Wagh U, Enlow RW, Spigland I, et al:  Longitudinal study of persistent generalised lymphadenopathy in homosexual men: Relation to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome . Lancet 1984;; 1:1033-1038.
El Sadr W, Marmor M, Zolla-Pazner S, et al:  Four-year prospective study of homosexual men: Correlation of immunologic abnormalities, clinical status, and serology to human immunodeficiency virus . J Infect Dis 1987;;155:789-793.
Polk BF, Fox R, Brookmeyer R, et al:  Predictors of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome developing in a cohort of seropositive homosexual men . N Engl J Med 1987;;316:61-66.
Schechter MT, Boyko WJ, Craib KJP, et al:  Effects of long-term seropositivity to human immunodeficiency virus in a cohort of homosexual men . AIDS 1987;;1:77-82.
Melbye M, Biggar RJ, Ebbesen P, et al:  Long-term seropositivity for human T-lymphotropic virus type III in homosexual men without the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome: Development of immunologic and clinical abnormalities . Ann Intern Med 1986;;104:496-500.
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