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March 21, 1977, Vol 237, No. 12 >
ARTICLE | March 21, 1977

Influenza Pandemics in Perspective FREE

Edwin D. Kilbourne, MD
[+] Author Affiliations

Presented as the Harry F. Dowling Lecture, Abraham Lincoln School of Medicine, University of Illinois, Oct 22, 1976.

Reprint requests to Department of Microbiology, Mt Sinai School of Medicine, Fifth Ave and 100th St, New York, NY 10029 (Dr Kilbourne).


JAMA. 1977;237(12):1225-1228. doi:10.1001/jama.1977.03270390041023
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References

IT IS NOW nine months* since the recognition of an influenza epidemic caused by swine influenza virus in military personnel at Fort Dix, NJ. The gestation period of an influenza pandemic is unknown, but in this case, long labor has preceded the delivery. Whatever else may be said of our unprecedented national effort for the amelioration of a pandemic for the first time in history, we now have an overwhelming balance of vaccine doses available to manifest cases of disease—about 150 million to zero (sporadic cases occurred subsequently in January). The basis of the decision to act aggressively against swine influenza has been cited more frequently in the lay press than in professional journals. In brief, the decision rested on (1) expectation of the emergence of a new major virus variant within the next few years on the basis of decennial periodicity of pandemics,1 (2) the unprecedented observation of

REFERENCES

1 +
Kilbourne ED: The Influenza Viruses and Influenza , New York, Academic Press, 1975;, pp 483-538.
2 +
Seal JR, Sencer DJ, Meyer HM Jr:  Swine influenza . J Infect Dis 133:715-719, 1976;.
3 +
Kavet J, in discussion, Fox JP, Kilbourne ED:  Epidemiology of influenza: Summary of influenza workshop IV . J Infect Dis 128:362-386, 1973;.
4 +
Kilbourne ED:  The severity of influenza as a reciprocal of host susceptibility , in Wolstenholme GEW, O'Connor CM (eds): Virus Virulence and Pathogenicity , Ciba Foundation Study Group No. 4, Boston, Little Brown & Co, 1960;, pp 58-77.
5 +
Davenport FM, Minuse E, Hennessy AV, et al:  Interpretations of influenza antibody patterns of man . Bull WHO 41:453-460, 1969;.
6 +
Fedson DS, Huber MA, Kasel JA, et al:  Presence of A/Equi/2 hemagglutinin and neuraminidase antibodies in man . Proc Soc Exp Biol Med 139:825-826, 1972;.
7 +
Masurel N, Marine WM:  Recycling of Asian and Hong Kong influenza virus hemagglutinins in man . Am J Epidemiol 97:44-49, 1973;.
8 +
Hattwick MAW, O'Brien RJ, Hoke CH, et al: Pandemic influenza, the swine influenza virus, and the National Influenza Immunization Program . Atlanta, Center for Disease Control, US Dept of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, 1976;.
9 +
Schulman JL, Kilbourne ED:  Experimental transmission of influenza virus in mice: I. The period of transmissibility . J Exp Med 118:257-266, 1963;.
10 +
Kilbourne ED:  Influenza virus genetics . Prog Med Virol 5:79-126, 1963;.
11 +
Palese P, Ritchey MB, Schulman JL, et al:  Genetic composition of a high-yielding influenza A virus recombinant: A vaccine strain against "swine" influenza . Science 194:334-335, 1976;.
12 +
Beare AS, Schild GC, Craig JW:  Trials in man with live recombinants made from A/PR/8/34 (HON1) and wild H3N2 influenza viruses . Lancet 2:729, 1975;.
13 +
Palese P, Ritchey MB, Schulman JL:  Mapping of the influenza virus genome: II. Identification of the P1, P2, and P3 Genes . Virology 76:114-121, 1977;.
14 +
Palese P, Schulman JL:  RNA pattern of 'swine' influenza virus isolated from man is similar to those of other swine influenza viruses . Nature 263:528-530, 1976;.
15 +
Shope RE:  The influenzas of swine and man . Harvey Lect 31:183-213, 1936;.

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Country-Specific Mortality and Growth Failure in Infancy and Yound Children and Association With Material Stature

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1 +
Kilbourne ED: The Influenza Viruses and Influenza , New York, Academic Press, 1975;, pp 483-538.
2 +
Seal JR, Sencer DJ, Meyer HM Jr:  Swine influenza . J Infect Dis 133:715-719, 1976;.
3 +
Kavet J, in discussion, Fox JP, Kilbourne ED:  Epidemiology of influenza: Summary of influenza workshop IV . J Infect Dis 128:362-386, 1973;.
4 +
Kilbourne ED:  The severity of influenza as a reciprocal of host susceptibility , in Wolstenholme GEW, O'Connor CM (eds): Virus Virulence and Pathogenicity , Ciba Foundation Study Group No. 4, Boston, Little Brown & Co, 1960;, pp 58-77.
5 +
Davenport FM, Minuse E, Hennessy AV, et al:  Interpretations of influenza antibody patterns of man . Bull WHO 41:453-460, 1969;.
6 +
Fedson DS, Huber MA, Kasel JA, et al:  Presence of A/Equi/2 hemagglutinin and neuraminidase antibodies in man . Proc Soc Exp Biol Med 139:825-826, 1972;.
7 +
Masurel N, Marine WM:  Recycling of Asian and Hong Kong influenza virus hemagglutinins in man . Am J Epidemiol 97:44-49, 1973;.
8 +
Hattwick MAW, O'Brien RJ, Hoke CH, et al: Pandemic influenza, the swine influenza virus, and the National Influenza Immunization Program . Atlanta, Center for Disease Control, US Dept of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, 1976;.
9 +
Schulman JL, Kilbourne ED:  Experimental transmission of influenza virus in mice: I. The period of transmissibility . J Exp Med 118:257-266, 1963;.
10 +
Kilbourne ED:  Influenza virus genetics . Prog Med Virol 5:79-126, 1963;.
11 +
Palese P, Ritchey MB, Schulman JL, et al:  Genetic composition of a high-yielding influenza A virus recombinant: A vaccine strain against "swine" influenza . Science 194:334-335, 1976;.
12 +
Beare AS, Schild GC, Craig JW:  Trials in man with live recombinants made from A/PR/8/34 (HON1) and wild H3N2 influenza viruses . Lancet 2:729, 1975;.
13 +
Palese P, Ritchey MB, Schulman JL:  Mapping of the influenza virus genome: II. Identification of the P1, P2, and P3 Genes . Virology 76:114-121, 1977;.
14 +
Palese P, Schulman JL:  RNA pattern of 'swine' influenza virus isolated from man is similar to those of other swine influenza viruses . Nature 263:528-530, 1976;.
15 +
Shope RE:  The influenzas of swine and man . Harvey Lect 31:183-213, 1936;.

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