Combination of Prostate-Specific Antigen, Clinical Stage, and Gleason Score to Predict Pathological Stage of Localized Prostate Cancer:  A Multi-institutional Update

Alan W. Partin, MD, PhD; Michael W. Kattan, PhD; Eric N. P. Subong, MS; Patrick C. Walsh, MD; Kirk J. Wojno, MD; Joseph E. Oesterling, MD; Peter T. Scardino, MD; J. D. Pearson, PhD
JAMA. 1997;277(18):1445-1451. doi:10.1001/jama.1997.03540420041027.
Text Size: A A A
Published online

Objective.  —To combine the clinical data from 3 academic institutions that serve as centers of excellence for the surgical treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer and develop a multi-institutional model combining serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical stage, and Gleason score to predict pathological stage for men with clinically localized prostate cancer.

Design.  —In this update, we have combined clinical and pathological data for a group of 4133 men treated by several surgeons from 3 major academic urologic centers within the United States. Multinomial log-linear regression was performed for the simultaneous prediction of organ-confined disease, isolated capsular penetration, seminal vesicle involvement, or pelvic lymph node involvement. Bootstrap estimates of the predicted probabilities were used to develop nomograms to predict pathological stage. Additional bootstrap analyses were then obtained to validate the performance of the nomograms.

Patients and Settings.  —A total of 4133 men who had undergone radical retropubic prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer at The Johns Hopkins Hospital (n=3116), Baylor College of Medicine (n=782), and the University of Michigan School of Medicine (n=235) were enrolled into this study. None of the patients had received preoperative hormonal or radiation therapy.

Outcome Measures.  —Simultaneous prediction of organ-confined disease, isolated capsular penetration, seminal vesicle involvement, or pelvic lymph node involvement using updated nomograms.

Results.  —Prostate-specific antigen level, TNM clinical stage, and Gleason score contributed significantly to the prediction of pathological stage (P<.001). Bootstrap estimates of the median and 95% confidence interval of the predicted probabilities are presented in the nomograms. For most cells in the nomograms, there is a greater than 25% probability of qualifying for more than one of the pathological stages. In the validation analyses, 72.4% of the time the nomograms correctly predicted the probability of a pathological stage to within 10% (organ-confined disease, 67.3%; isolated capsular penetration, 59.6%; seminal vesicle involvement, 79.6%; pelvic lymph node involvement, 82.9%).

Conclusions.  —The data represent a multi-institutional modeling and validation of the clinical utility of combining PSA level measurement, clinical stage, and Gleason score to predict pathological stage for a group of men with localized prostate cancer. Clinicians can use these nomograms when counseling individual patients regarding the probability of their tumor being a specific pathological stage; this will enable patients and physicians to make more informed treatment decisions based on the probability of a pathological stage, as well as risk tolerance and the values they place on various potential outcomes.


Sign In to Access Full Content

Don't have Access?

Register and get free email Table of Contents alerts, saved searches, PowerPoint downloads, CME quizzes, and more

Subscribe for full-text access to content from 1998 forward and a host of useful features

Activate your current subscription (AMA members and current subscribers)

Purchase Online Access to this article for 24 hours




Meets CME requirements for:
Browse CME for all U.S. States
Accreditation Information
The American Medical Association is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The AMA designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM per course. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. Physicians who complete the CME course and score at least 80% correct on the quiz are eligible for AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM.
Note: You must get at least of the answers correct to pass this quiz.
You have not filled in all the answers to complete this quiz
The following questions were not answered:
Sorry, you have unsuccessfully completed this CME quiz with a score of
The following questions were not answered correctly:
Commitment to Change (optional):
Indicate what change(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Your quiz results:
The filled radio buttons indicate your responses. The preferred responses are highlighted
For CME Course: A Proposed Model for Initial Assessment and Management of Acute Heart Failure Syndromes
Indicate what changes(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).


Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Sign In to Access Full Content

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.