0
We're unable to sign you in at this time. Please try again in a few minutes.
Retry
We were able to sign you in, but your subscription(s) could not be found. Please try again in a few minutes.
Retry
There may be a problem with your account. Please contact the AMA Service Center to resolve this issue.
Contact the AMA Service Center:
Telephone: 1 (800) 262-2350 or 1 (312) 670-7827  *   Email: subscriptions@jamanetwork.com
Error Message ......
ARTICLE |

Projecting the Incidence of AIDS

Mitchell H. Gail, MD, PhD; Ron Brookmeyer, PhD
JAMA. 1990;263(11):1538-1539. doi:10.1001/jama.1990.03440110104037.
Text Size: A A A
Published online

Projections of the course of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic are crucial for developing public health policies to control the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and to meet future health care needs. The first Public Health Service projection1 was 270 000 cumulative AIDS cases in the United States by the end of 1991. This projection was made at the 1986 Coolfont Planning Conference, at which time fewer than 30 000 AIDS cases had been reported, and, although this projection appears to have overestimated the incidence of AIDS somewhat, it has proved to be a good guide for health planning.

The original successful Coolfont projection was based on simple extrapolation of the observed incidence of AIDS.2 Successful extrapolation depends on a fortunate choice of the mathematical curve used, and certain specialized mathematical functions can produce surprising results. For example, in this issue of The Journal, Bregman

Topics

Sign in

Create a free personal account to sign up for alerts, share articles, and more.

Purchase Options

• Buy this article
• Subscribe to the journal

First Page Preview

View Large
First page PDF preview

Figures

Tables

References

CME
Also Meets CME requirements for:
Browse CME for all U.S. States
Accreditation Information
The American Medical Association is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The AMA designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM per course. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. Physicians who complete the CME course and score at least 80% correct on the quiz are eligible for AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM.
Note: You must get at least of the answers correct to pass this quiz.
Your answers have been saved for later.
You have not filled in all the answers to complete this quiz
The following questions were not answered:
Sorry, you have unsuccessfully completed this CME quiz with a score of
The following questions were not answered correctly:
Commitment to Change (optional):
Indicate what change(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Your quiz results:
The filled radio buttons indicate your responses. The preferred responses are highlighted
For CME Course: A Proposed Model for Initial Assessment and Management of Acute Heart Failure Syndromes
Indicate what changes(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.

Multimedia

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Sign in

Create a free personal account to sign up for alerts, share articles, and more.

Purchase Options

• Buy this article
• Subscribe to the journal

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.

Jobs
brightcove.createExperiences();