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HIV Prevalence, Projected AIDS Case Estimates: Workshop, October 31 —November 1,1989

JAMA. 1990;263(11):1477-1480. doi:10.1001/jama.1990.03440110031009.
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 Public Health Service. Coolfont report: a PHS plan for prevention and control of AIDS and the AIDS virus . Public Health Rep 1986;101:341-8.
Buehler JW, Devine OJ, Berkelman RL, Chevarley FM.  Impact of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic on mortality trends in young men, United States . Am J Public Health (in press).
Dondero TJ, St. Louis M, Anderson J, Petersen L, Pappaioanou M.  Evaluation of the estimated number of HIV infections using a spreadsheet model and empirical data (Abstract) . V International Conference on AIDS. Montreal, June 4-9 , 1989:45.
Brookmeyer R, Damiano A.  Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence . Stat Med 1989;8:23-34.
Link to Article[[XSLOpenURL/10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0258]]
Brookmeyer R, Gail MH.  A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic . J Am Stat Assoc 1988;83:301-8.
Link to Article[[XSLOpenURL/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478599]]
CDC.  Update: acquired immunodeficiency syndrome—United States, 1989 . MMWR 1990;39:81-6.
Garland FC, Mayers DL, Hickey TM, et al.  Incidence of human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion in U.S. Navy and Marine Corps personnel, 1986 through 1988 . JAMA 1989;262:3161-5.
Link to Article[[XSLOpenURL/10.1001/jama.1989.03430220084035]]
McNeil JG, Brundage JF, Wann ZF, Burke DS, Miller RN, and the Walter Reed Retrovirus Research Group.  Direct measurement of human immunodeficiency virus seroconversions in a serially tested population of young adults in the United States Army, October 1985 to October 1987 . N Engl J Med 1989;320:1581-5.
Link to Article[[XSLOpenURL/10.1056/NEJM198906153202403]]
Brundage JF, McNeil JG, Miller RN, et al.  The current distribution of CD4 + T-lymphocyte counts among adults in the United States with human immunodeficiency virus infection: estimates based on the experience of the U.S. Army . J AIDS 1990;3:92-4.
Munoz A, Carey V, Saah A, et al.  Predictors in the decline in CD4 lymphocytes in a cohort of homosexual partners infected with the human immunodeficiency virus . J AIDS 1988;1:396-404.
DeGruttola V, Lange N, Dafni U.  Modeling the progression of HIV infection . Presented at the 47th session of the International Statistics Institute, August 1989 .
CDC.  Human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United States: a review of current knowledge . MMWR 1987;36(no. (S-6) ).
Gail MH, Rosenberg PS, Goedert JJ.  Therapy may explain recent deficits in AIDS incidence . J AIDS (in press).
Andrews EB, Creagh-Kirk T, Pattishall K, Tilson H.  Number of patients treated with zidovudine in the limited distribution system, March-September 1987 (Letter) . J AIDS (in press).
Estimates were developed from workshop reports and may not be endorsed by all participants.
Single copies of this document will be available until February 23,1991, from the National AIDS Information Clearinghouse, P.O. Box 6003, Rockville, MD 20850; telephone (800) 458-5231. The full report and recommendations from the workshop will be published in a future issue of MMWR Recommendations and Reports.
CDC estimates that 70%-90% of all HIV-related deaths in young adult men are reported through AIDS surveillance2 and that 85% of all diagnosed AIDS cases are reported.

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