Nuclear and thermonuclear strikes on heavily populated areas would cause a tremendous number of casualties requiring immediate medical attention. A rapid, simple, and accurate method of casualty estimation would be necessary on a local and a national basis. This estimate should give the survivors some idea of the types and numbers of casualties and of the personnel, supply, transportation, bed, and other requirements resulting from the disaster.
There are many systems for estimating casualties, some involving the use of templates on maps and others using ring or "cooky-cutter" systems and varying amounts of mathematical manipulation. Very detailed methods involve hours of calculations and the use of semilogarithmic graphs, fractional powers, and in some instances classified information. Detailed analyses by current methods have been associated with a high incidence of error even in experienced, highly competent hands.
A rapid, practical, more accurate system for estimation of the medical, logistic, and tactical