0
We're unable to sign you in at this time. Please try again in a few minutes.
Retry
We were able to sign you in, but your subscription(s) could not be found. Please try again in a few minutes.
Retry
There may be a problem with your account. Please contact the AMA Service Center to resolve this issue.
Contact the AMA Service Center:
Telephone: 1 (800) 262-2350 or 1 (312) 670-7827  *   Email: subscriptions@jamanetwork.com
Error Message ......
JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods |

Evaluating Discrimination of Risk Prediction Models The C Statistic

Michael J. Pencina, PhD1; Ralph B. D’Agostino Sr, PhD2
[+] Author Affiliations
1Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
JAMA. 2015;314(10):1063-1064. doi:10.1001/jama.2015.11082.
Text Size: A A A
Published online

Extract

This Guide to Statistics and Methods characterizes the strengths and limitations of the C statistic as a measure of a risk prediction model’s ability to discriminate between and predict future events.

Risk prediction models help clinicians develop personalized treatments for patients. The models generally use variables measured at one time point to estimate the probability of an outcome occurring within a given time in the future. It is essential to assess the performance of a risk prediction model in the setting in which it will be used. This is done by evaluating the model’s discrimination and calibration. Discrimination refers to the ability of the model to separate individuals who develop events from those who do not. In time-to-event settings, discrimination is the ability of the model to predict who will develop an event earlier and who will develop an event later or not at all. Calibration measures how accurately the model’s predictions match overall observed event rates.

Sign in

Purchase Options

• Buy this article
• Subscribe to the journal
• Rent this article ?

First Page Preview

View Large
First page PDF preview

Figures

Tables

References

CME
Also Meets CME requirements for:
Browse CME for all U.S. States
Accreditation Information
The American Medical Association is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The AMA designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM per course. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. Physicians who complete the CME course and score at least 80% correct on the quiz are eligible for AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM.
Note: You must get at least of the answers correct to pass this quiz.
Please click the checkbox indicating that you have read the full article in order to submit your answers.
Your answers have been saved for later.
You have not filled in all the answers to complete this quiz
The following questions were not answered:
Sorry, you have unsuccessfully completed this CME quiz with a score of
The following questions were not answered correctly:
Commitment to Change (optional):
Indicate what change(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Your quiz results:
The filled radio buttons indicate your responses. The preferred responses are highlighted
For CME Course: A Proposed Model for Initial Assessment and Management of Acute Heart Failure Syndromes
Indicate what changes(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.

Multimedia

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

5,945 Views
5 Citations
×

Sign in

Purchase Options

• Buy this article
• Subscribe to the journal
• Rent this article ?

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.

Related Collections
PubMed Articles
Jobs
JAMAevidence.com

Care at the Close of Life: Evidence and Experience
Patient Signs and Symptoms

brightcove.createExperiences();