Manton KG, Gu X. Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States
black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A.2001;98:6354-6359.
Freedman VA, Aykan H, Martin LG. Aggregate changes in severe cognitive impairment among older Americans:
1993 and 1998. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci.2001;56:S100-S111.
Freedman VA, Martin LG. Understanding trends in functional limitations among older Americans. Am J Public Health.1998;88:1457-1462.
Desai M, Pratt LA, Lentzner H, Robinson KN. Trends in Vision and Hearing Among Older Americans. Hyattsville, Md: National Center for Health Statistics; 2001. Aging
Trends, No 2.
Ostchega Y, Harris T, Hirsch R, Parsons VL, Kington R. Prevalence of functional limitations and disability in older person
in the US: data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. J Am Geriatr Soc.2000;48:1132-1135.
McNeil J. Americans With Disabilities, 1997: Current Population
Reports. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau; 2001:70-73.
Trupin L, Rice DP, Max W. Medical Expenditures for People With Disabilities
in the United States, 1987. Washington: DC: US Dept of Education, National Institute on Disability
and Rehabilation Research; 1995.
Congressional Budget Office. Projections for long-term care services for the elderly, March 1999. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov. Accessed May 19, 2002.
Ettner SL. The opportunity costs of elder care. J Hum Resour.1996;31:189-205.
Fries JF. Aging, natural death and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med.1980;303:130-135.
Gruenberg EM. The failures of success. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc.1977;55:3-24.
Manton KG. Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc.1982;60:183-244.
Manton KG, Corder L, Stallard E. Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence
and prevalence rates in the US elderly population from the 1982,1984, and
1989 National Long Term Care Survey. J Gerontol.1993;48:S153-S166.
Manton KG, Corder L, Stallard E. Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994. Proc Natl Acad Sci.1997;94:2593-2598.
Cutler DM. The reduction in disability among the elderly. Proc Natl Acad Sci.2001;98:6546-6547.
Cutler DM. Declining disability among the elderly. Health Aff (Millwood).2001;20:11-27.
Lubitz J, Greenberg L, Gorinaa Y, Wartzman L, Gibson D. Three decades of health care use by the elderly: 1965-1998. Health Aff (Millwood).2001;20(2):19-32.
Singer BH, Manton KG. The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs
for the elderly population of the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A.1998;95:15618-15622.
Pope AM, Tarlov AR. Disability in America: Toward a National Agenda for
Prevention. Washington, DC: National Academy Press; 1991.
Verbrugge LM, Jette AM. The disablement process. Soc Sci Med.1994;38:1-14.
Katz S, Ford AB, Moskowitz RW, Jackson BA, Jaffee MW. Studies of illness in the aged: the Index of ADL, a standardized measure
of biological and psychosocial function. JAMA.1963;185:914-919.
Lawton MP, Brody EM. Assessment of older people: self-maintaining and instrumental activities
of daily living. Gerontologist.1969;9:179-186.
Nagi SZ. Some conceptual issues in disability and rehabilitation. In: Sussman MB, Ed. Sociology and Rehabilitation. Washington, DC: American Sociological Association; 1965:100-113.
Kane RL, Kane RA. Assessing Older Persons: Measures, Meaning, and Practical
Applications. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2000.
Sherman SE, Reuben D. Measures of functional status in community-dwelling elders. J Gen Intern Med.1998;13:817-823.
Crimmins EM. Mixed trends in population health among older adults. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci.1996;51:S223-S225.
Wolf D. Population change: friend or foe of the chronic care system? Health Aff (Millwood).2001;20:28-42.
Freedman VA, Soldo BJ. Forecasting Disability: Workshop Summary. Convened by the Committee on National Statistics of the Commission
on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.
Washington, DC: National Academy Press; 1994.
Waidmann T, Manton KG. International Evidence on Disability Trends. Washington, DC: US Dept of Health and Human Services; 1998.
Crimmins EM, Saito Y, Ingegneri D. Trends in disability-free life expectancy in the United States, 1970-1990. Popul Dev Rev.1997;23:555-572.
Shrestha LB, Rosenswaike I. Can data from the decennial census measure trends in mobility limitation
among the aged? Gerontologist.1996;36:106-109.
Waidmann T, Bound J, Schoenbaum M. The illusion of failure: trends in the self-reported health of the
US elderly. Milbank Q.1995;73:253-287.
Clark DO. US trends in disability and institutionalization among older blacks
and whites. Am J Public Health.1997;87:438-440.
Costa DL. Understanding the twentieth-century decline in chronic conditions among
older men. Demography.2000;37:53-72.
Costa DL. Changing chronic disease rates and long-term declines in functional limitation among older men. Demography.2002;39:119-137.
Bishop CE. Where are the missing elders: the decline in nursing home use, 1985
and 1995. Health Aff (Millwood).1999;18:146-155.
Rhoades JA, Krauss NA. Nursing Home Trends, 1987 and 1996. Rockville, Md: Agency for Health Care Policy and Research; 1999.
MEPS Chartbook No. 3.
Sayhoun NR, Pratt LA, Lentzner H, Dey A, Robinson KN. The changing profile of nursing home residents: 1985-1997. Aging Trends.2001;(4):1-8.
Allaire SH, LaValley MP, Evans SR.
et al. Evidence for Decline in Disability and Improved Health Among Persons
Aged 55 to 70 Years: The Framingham Heart Study. Am J Public Health.1999;89:1678-1683.
Crimmins EM, Saito Y. Change in the prevalence of diseases among older Americans: 1984-1994. Demographic Res.2000;9:1-20.
Crimmins EM, Saito Y, Reynolds SL. Further evidence on recent trends in the prevalence and incidence of
disability among older Americans from two sources: the LSOA and the NHIS. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci.1997;52:S59-S71.
Freedman VA, Aykan H, Martin LG. Another look at aggregate changes in severe cognitive impairment: cumulative
effects of three survey design issues. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci.2002;57:S126-S131.
Freedman VA, Martin LG. The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional
limitations among older Americans. Demography.1999;36:461-473.
Freedman VA, Martin LG. 2000. Contribution of chronic conditions to aggregate changes in old-age
functioning. Am J Public Health.2000;90:1755-1760.
Liao Y, McGee DL, Cao G, Cooper RS. Quality of the last year of life of older adults: 1986 vs 1993. JAMA.2000;283:512-518.
Liao Y, McGee DL, Cao G, Cooper RS. Recent changes in the health status of the older US population: findings
from the 1984 and 1994 supplement on aging. J Am Geriatr Soc.2001;49:443-449.
Schoeni R, Freedman VA, Wallace R. Persistent, consistent, widespread, and robust? another look at recent
trends in old-age disability. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci.2001;56:S206-S218.
Waidmann T, Liu K. Disability trends among the elderly and implications for the future. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci.2000;55:S298-S307.
Fleiss JL. Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons; 1981.
Lan T, Melzer D, Tom BV, Gurlanik J. Performance tests and disability: developing an objective index of
mobility-related limitation in older populations. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci.2002;57:M294-M301.