0
We're unable to sign you in at this time. Please try again in a few minutes.
Retry
We were able to sign you in, but your subscription(s) could not be found. Please try again in a few minutes.
Retry
There may be a problem with your account. Please contact the AMA Service Center to resolve this issue.
Contact the AMA Service Center:
Telephone: 1 (800) 262-2350 or 1 (312) 670-7827  *   Email: subscriptions@jamanetwork.com
Error Message ......
Original Investigation |

Stroke Incidence and Mortality Trends in US Communities, 1987 to 2011

Silvia Koton, PhD, MOccH1,2; Andrea L. C. Schneider, MD, PhD2; Wayne D. Rosamond, PhD3; Eyal Shahar, MD, MPH4; Yingying Sang, MSc2; Rebecca F. Gottesman, MD, PhD2,5; Josef Coresh, MD, PhD2
[+] Author Affiliations
1Stanley Steyer School of Health Professions, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
2Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
3Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
4Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson
5Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
JAMA. 2014;312(3):259-268. doi:10.1001/jama.2014.7692.
Text Size: A A A
Published online

Importance  Prior studies have shown decreases in stroke mortality over time, but data on validated stroke incidence and long-term trends by race are limited.

Objective  To study trends in stroke incidence and subsequent mortality among black and white adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort from 1987 to 2011.

Design, Setting, and Participants  Prospective cohort study of 14 357 participants (282 097 person-years) free of stroke at baseline was facilitated in 4 different US communities. Participants were recruited for the purpose of studying all stroke hospitalizations and deaths and for collection of baseline information on cardiovascular risk factors (via interviews and physical examinations) in 1987-1989. Participants were followed up (via examinations, annual phone interviews, active surveillance of discharges from local hospitals, and linkage with the National Death Index) through December 31, 2011. The study physician reviewers adjudicated all possible strokes and classified them as definite or probable ischemic or hemorrhagic events.

Main Outcomes and Measures  Trends in rates of first-ever stroke per 10 years of calendar time were estimated using Poisson regression incidence rate ratios (IRRs), with subsequent mortality analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models and hazard ratios (HRs) overall and by race, sex, and age divided at 65 years.

Results  Among 1051 (7%) participants with incident stroke, there were 929 with incident ischemic stroke and 140 with incident hemorrhagic stroke (18 participants had both during the study period). Crude incidence rates were 3.73 (95% CI, 3.51-3.96) per 1000 person-years for total stroke, 3.29 (95% CI, 3.08-3.50) per 1000 person-years for ischemic stroke, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.41-0.57) per 1000 person-years for hemorrhagic stroke. Stroke incidence decreased over time in white and black participants (age-adjusted IRRs per 10-year period, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.66-0.87]; absolute decrease of 0.93 per 1000 person-years overall). The decrease in age-adjusted incidence was evident in participants age 65 years and older (age-adjusted IRR per 10-year period, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.81]; absolute decrease of 1.35 per 1000 person-years) but not evident in participants younger than 65 years (age-adjusted IRR per 10-year period, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.76-1.25]; absolute decrease of 0.09 per 1000 person-years) (P = .02 for interaction). The decrease in incidence was similar by sex. Of participants with incident stroke, 614 (58%) died through 2011. The mortality rate was higher for hemorrhagic stroke (68%) than for ischemic stroke (57%). Overall, mortality after stroke decreased over time (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.66-0.98]; absolute decrease of 8.09 per 100 strokes after 10 years [per 10-year period]). The decrease in mortality was mostly accounted for by the decrease at younger than age 65 years (HR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.93]; absolute decrease of 14.19 per 100 strokes after 10 years [per 10-year period]), but was similar across race and sex.

Conclusions and Relevance  In a multicenter cohort of black and white adults in US communities, stroke incidence and mortality rates decreased from 1987 to 2011. The decreases varied across age groups, but were similar across sex and race, showing that improvements in stroke incidence and outcome continued to 2011.

Figures in this Article

Sign in

Create a free personal account to sign up for alerts, share articles, and more.

Purchase Options

• Buy this article
• Subscribe to the journal

Figures

Place holder to copy figure label and caption
Figure.
Adjusted Stroke Incidence Rate Ratios vs Calendar Time

Models are adjusted for age, sex, race and center, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, cholesterol-lowering medication use, and smoking. Dots represent adjusted incidence rate ratio point estimates from model run using a categorical calendar time variable, plotted at midpoint of each 3-year calendar time category, with 1999-2001 as the reference category. The dotted line represents the linear trend in adjusted incidence rate ratios and the shaded area represents the 95% CI with 2000 as the reference point. Models included all study data, but plots exclude time periods in which there were few events.

Graphic Jump Location

Tables

References

Letters

CME
Meets CME requirements for:
Browse CME for all U.S. States
Accreditation Information
The American Medical Association is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The AMA designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM per course. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. Physicians who complete the CME course and score at least 80% correct on the quiz are eligible for AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM.
Note: You must get at least of the answers correct to pass this quiz.
You have not filled in all the answers to complete this quiz
The following questions were not answered:
Sorry, you have unsuccessfully completed this CME quiz with a score of
The following questions were not answered correctly:
Commitment to Change (optional):
Indicate what change(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Your quiz results:
The filled radio buttons indicate your responses. The preferred responses are highlighted
For CME Course: A Proposed Model for Initial Assessment and Management of Acute Heart Failure Syndromes
Indicate what changes(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.

Multimedia

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Web of Science® Times Cited: 1

Sign in

Create a free personal account to sign up for alerts, share articles, and more.

Purchase Options

• Buy this article
• Subscribe to the journal

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.

Articles Related By Topic
Related Collections
PubMed Articles
Jobs
JAMAevidence.com

Users' Guides to the Medical Literature
Stroke

Users' Guides to the Medical Literature
Mild Stroke

brightcove.createExperiences();