In Reply: Dr Males cites data from California
to cast doubt on the wisdom of graduated licensing systems for teenaged drivers;
however, it is still too early to determine the effects of California's stricter
graduated licensing law, which went into effect on July 1, 1998. Males' analysis
assumes that all 16-year-old drivers in crashes from July 1, 1998, to June
30, 1999, were subject to the new law. However, any 15- or 16-year-old who
applied for a learner's permit or provisional license prior to July 1, 1998,
was not covered by the law.1 Furthermore,
there might have been a rush to apply for permits prior to July 1, 1998, which
could have increased the number of 16-year-old drivers at risk of crashing
during 1998-1999.